The IPM opportunity
Integrated Pest Management (IPM) aims to control pests with minimal environmental and health impacts by combining monitoring, biological control, cultural practices, and targeted chemical interventions. Forecasting pest pressure—what many call a pest‑alarm—lets growers apply measures in time, reducing pesticide volumes and improving residue outcomes.

Data streams that improve forecasts
Useful inputs include high‑resolution weather (temperature, humidity), trap counts, phenology models, satellite indices, and management logs (planting dates, cultivar). Data fusion techniques and time‑series models (or hybrid mechanistic‑statistical models) can produce short‑term pest‑risk alerts and actionable advice for growers.

Decision support & farmer uptake
Decision support systems (DSS) translate forecasts into management actions—when to monitor, when to release biocontrol, or when to apply a narrowly targeted treatment. Successful DSS deployments are co‑developed with farmers and agronomists, integrate local thresholds, and provide simple, reliable alerts. Recent European initiatives and research demonstrate measurable reductions in pesticide use when DSS are adopted.

Conclusion
Pest‑alarm forecasting is a high‑value use of data and models: it reduces chemical use, lowers food‑safety residue risk, and supports Farm‑to‑Fork sustainability goals when combined with well‑designed decision support for growers.

References

IPM decision support review — Tratwal et al., Sustainability, 2025. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/18/8111

IPM platforms & projects — IPM DECISIONS / SOPRA references. https://open-research-europe.ec.europa.eu/articles/5-320

Farm to Fork Strategy — European Commission ‘Farm to Fork’ 2020 action plan. https://food.ec.europa.eu/horizontal-topics/farm-fork-strategy_en